Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

Data assimilation for the heat equation using stabilized finite element methods.

We consider data assimilation for the heat equation using a finite element space semi-discretization. The approach is optimization based, but the design of regularization operators and parameters rely on techniques from the theory of stabilized finite elements. The space semi-discretized system is shown to admit a unique solution. Combining sharp estimates of the numerical stability of the discrete scheme and conditional stability estimates of the ill-posed continuous pde-model we then derive error estimates that reflect the approximation order of the finite element space and the stability of the continuous model. Two different data assimilation situations with different stability properties are considered to illustrate the framework. Full detail on how to adapt known stability estimates for the continuous model to work with the numerical analysis framework is given in "Appendix".

Open tundra persist, but arctic features decline-Vegetation changes in the warming Fennoscandian tundra.

In the forest-tundra ecotone of the North Fennoscandian inland, summer and winter temperatures have increased by two to three centigrades since 1965, which is expected to result in major vegetation changes. To document the expected expansion of woodlands and scrublands and its impact on the arctic vegetation, we repeated a vegetation transect study conducted in 1976 in the Darju, spanning from woodland to a summit, 200 m above the tree line. Contrary to our expectations, tree line movement was not detected, and there was no increase in willows or shrubby mountain birches, either. Nevertheless, the stability of tundra was apparent. Small-sized, poorly competing arctic species had declined, lichen cover had decreased, and vascular plants, especially evergreen ericoid dwarf shrubs, had gained ground. The novel climate seems to favour competitive clonal species and species thriving in closed vegetation, creating a community hostile for seedling establishment, but equally hostile for many arctic species, too. Preventing trees and shrubs from invading the tundra is thus not sufficient for conserving arctic biota in the changing climate. The only dependable cure is to stop the global warming.

Where do the treeless tundra areas of northern highlands fit in the global biome system: toward an ecologically natural subdivision of the tundra biome.

According to some treatises, arctic and alpine sub-biomes are ecologically similar, whereas others find them highly dissimilar. Most peculiarly, large areas of northern tundra highlands fall outside of the two recent subdivisions of the tundra biome. We seek an ecologically natural resolution to this long-standing and far-reaching problem. We studied broad-scale patterns in climate and vegetation along the gradient from Siberian tundra via northernmost Fennoscandia to the alpine habitats of European middle-latitude mountains, as well as explored those patterns within Fennoscandian tundra based on climate-vegetation patterns obtained from a fine-scale vegetation map. Our analyses reveal that ecologically meaningful January-February snow and thermal conditions differ between different types of tundra. High precipitation and mild winter temperatures prevail on middle-latitude mountains, low precipitation and usually cold winters prevail on high-latitude tundra, and Scandinavian mountains show intermediate conditions. Similarly, heath-like plant communities differ clearly between middle latitude mountains (alpine) and high-latitude tundra vegetation, including its altitudinal extension on Scandinavian mountains. Conversely, high abundance of snowbeds and large differences in the composition of dwarf shrub heaths distinguish the Scandinavian mountain tundra from its counterparts in Russia and the north Fennoscandian inland. The European tundra areas fall into three ecologically rather homogeneous categories: the arctic tundra, the oroarctic tundra of northern heights and mountains, and the genuinely alpine tundra of middle-latitude mountains. Attempts to divide the tundra into two sub-biomes have resulted in major discrepancies and confusions, as the oroarctic areas are included in the arctic tundra in some biogeographic maps and in the alpine tundra in others. Our analyses based on climate and vegetation criteria thus seem to resolve the long-standing biome delimitation problem, help in consistent characterization of research sites, and create a basis for further biogeographic and ecological research in global tundra environments.

Varying impacts of cervid, hare and vole browsing on growth and survival of boreal tree seedlings.

The negative impacts of mammalian herbivores on plants have been studied quite extensively, but typically with only a single herbivore species at a time. We conducted a novel comparison of the browsing effects of voles, hares and cervids upon the growth and survival of boreal tree seedlings. This was done by excluding varying assemblages of these key mammalian herbivores from silver birch, Scots pine and Norway spruce seedlings for 3 years. We hypothesised that the pooled impacts of the herbivores would be greater than that of any individual group, while the cervids would be the group with the strongest impact. Growth of birch seedlings advanced when cervids were excluded whereas growth of seedlings accessible to cervids was hindered. Survival of all seedlings was lowest when they were accessible to voles and voles plus hares, whereas cervids seemed not to influence seedling survival. Our results show that the impact of herbivores upon woody plants can be potent in the boreal forests, but the mechanism and strength of this link depends on the tree and herbivore species in question. Risk of abated stand regeneration appears highest for the deciduous birch, though there is need for seedling protection also in coniferous stands. The clear cervid-mediated growth limitation of birch also indicates potential for a trophic cascade effect by mammalian top predators, currently returning to boreal ecosystems.

Trophic downgrading of planet Earth.

Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. The loss of these animals may be humankind's most pervasive influence on nature. Although such losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles. These findings emphasize the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to forecast the effects of trophic downgrading on process, function, and resilience in global ecosystems.

Spatial patterns and dynamic responses of arctic food webs corroborate the exploitation ecosystems hypothesis (EEH).

According to the exploitation ecosystems hypothesis (EEH), productive terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by community-level trophic cascades, whereas unproductive ecosystems harbor food-limited grazers, which regulate community-level plant biomass. We tested this hypothesis along arctic-alpine productivity gradients at the Joatka field base, Finnmark, Norway. In unproductive habitats, mammalian predators were absent and plant biomass was constant, whereas herbivore biomass varied, reflecting the productivity of the habitat. In productive habitats, predatory mammals were persistently present and plant biomass varied in space, but herbivore biomass did not. Plant biomass of productive tundra scrublands declined by 40% when vegetation blocks were transferred to predation-free islands. Corresponding transfer to herbivore-free islands triggered an increase in plant biomass. Fertilization of an unproductive tundra heath resulted in a fourfold increase in rodent density and a corresponding increase in winter grazing activity, whereas the total aboveground plant biomass remained unchanged. These results corroborate the predictions of the EEH, implying that the endotherm community and the vegetation of the North European tundra behaves dynamically as if each trophic level consisted of a single population, in spite of local co-occurrence of >20 plant species representing different major taxonomic groups, growth forms, and defensive strategies.

Interactions between gray-sided voles (Clethrionomys rufucanus) and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), their main winter food plant.

We compared the abundance, population structure and palatability of bilberry ramets on vole-free islands, islands with voles but no predators (predator-free islands) and mainland sites with both voles and predators. As expected, bilberry biomass was strongly correlated with the herbivory pressure exerted by the voles, since it was significantly lower on the mainland, and much (>80%) lower on the predator-free islands, than on the vole-free islands. However, another finding, which conflicts with hypotheses postulating that herbivory generally induces plant defenses, was that voles preferred ramets from predator-free islands. Bilberry plants were fairly tolerant to grazing since they compensated for some of the lost tissue by producing more new ramets. This response should promote stability in the plant-herbivore interaction by reducing the impact of past grazing on current food production and thus minimizing time delays in the interactions that could potentially generate population cycles.

The Logic and Realism of the Hypothesis of Exploitation Ecosystems.

Hypotheses on trophic dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems fall into two major categories: those in which plants are assumed to be invulnerable to their consumers and those in which the build-up of plant biomass is assumed to require top-down control of folivores. The hypothesis of exploitation ecosystems (EEH) belongs to the latter category and focuses particularly on the consequences of the high energetic costs of maintenance of endotherms. Carnivorous endotherms require relatively high prey densities in order to break even. Moreover, they are dependent on folivorous prey during the limiting season, at least at high latitudes. The endotherm branch of the grazing web is thus predicted to collapse from three-link trophic dynamics (carnivores → folivores → plants → inorganic resources) to two-link dynamics (folivores → plants → inorganic resources) along gradients of decreasing primary productivity. Consequently, the vegetation of cold and unproductive areas is predicted to be under intense winter grazing pressure, which prevents the accumulation of aboveground plant biomass and excludes erect woody plants. In the most extreme habitats (e.g., polar deserts and their high alpine counterparts), even folivorous endotherms are predicted to be absent, and the scanty vegetation is predicted to be structured by preemptive competition. Within temperature-determined productivity gradients, EEH is corroborated by biomass patterns, by patterns in the structure and dynamics of carnivore, folivore, and plant communities, and by experimental results. The general idea of top-down trophic dynamics is supported for other autotroph-based systems, too, but the relevance and sufficiency of the energy constraint in explaining patterns in trophic dynamics appears to be variable. Moreover, critical empirical evidence for or against the capacity of folivorous insects to regulate plant biomass has not yet been obtained. Another open question is the ability of boreal and temperate browsers, evolved in productive environments with intense predation pressure and abundance of forage, to prevent the regeneration of the least palatable tree species. There are, thus, many open questions waiting to be answered and many exciting experiments waiting to be conducted.